The baseball playoffs start today, and as of the time I'm writing this, Odalis Perez has already been shelled into oblivion and the Dodgers are only now scrapping back to within 7-2 . . . so give game 1 to the Cards in that series.
Nonetheless, The Monk is fearless in predicting that each of the best of five series will go at least three games!
Actually, here are some more thoughtful observations. First, if Fox Sports President David Hill's claim that the Red Stiffs are a bigger TV draw than the Yankees is correct (a statement backed up with NO FACTS), why did Fox CHOOSE the Yankees-Twins game for tonight? As the primetime broadcaster, under the agreements Fox and ESPN have with MLB, Fox had the choice of whichever game it wanted to show in the Tuesday night primetime slot. Fox chose the Yankees-Twins game. As the primetime telecaster for Wednesday and Friday, ESPN could choose whichever game it wanted for those nights, and it also picked Yankees-Twins. From the money-talks standpoint, David Hill is full of crap.
Second, the conventional wisdom (a phrase renowned for its 50% accuracy) says that you need excellent starting pitching to win the World Series. Here are the exceptions to that rule since the advent of the three-tier playoff system in 1995: 1996 Yankees, 1997 Marlins, 2000 Yankees, 2002 Angels (and their 2 quality starts in 16 playoff games). The way The Monk counts, that's four teams with so-so starting that have won the Series in the past nine years (and the 1993 Blue Jays and 1990 Reds weren't exactly teeming with Hall of Famers, so you could stretch this theory out a bit).
Third, the don't believe the hype claim of the postseason. The press has been touting Johan Santana as the most likely playoff-changing pitching hero since Orel Hershiser in 1988. One problem: the Dodgers won the 1988 NLCS more due to their own grit than to Orel's heroics. Yes, he pitched 24+ innings and allowed only 3 ER, but the Dodgers lost (aka, their bullpen and defense honked) two of his three starts. Despite those failures, the Dodgers beat the Mets in three of the four games Hershiser did NOT start. And in the World Series, the real heroics were Kirk Gibson's immortal HR in game 1 (the worst pitch Eckersley ever threw -- a slider to an injured player who had NO CHANCE against a fastball) that turned the tide of the series immediately. Yankee fans are self-deluding if they believe that a win tonight = a win in the series against the Twins just because Santana starts this evening. And the Yankee-haters (and both of you Twins fans outside the Pohlad family) are deluding themselves if they think this series will turn on Santana going 2-0 with two stellar starts. In 9 years, and 36 divisional series, that phenomenon has occurred once: the 2001 Cards-Snakes series when Schilling was superb and made up for Johnson's honk in game 2.
Fourth, here's the one positive prediction I'll make: success or failure for the Yankees in this postseason will not depend on who they play against, but will instead hinge on their performance alone. Seems simple or incoherent or both, but the point is that the Yankees' opponent is largely irrelevant because they can hit anyone, the question is whether they will. That is how good they can be and how (often) bad they have been. This is a contrast to the '97 team and '01 team that couldn't hit top-end hard-throwers and the '03 team that had trouble against fireballers. Why? SHEFFIELD + (second-year) Matsui.
The Yanks have been outscored by all three of their potential AL playoff opponents head-to-head, but those stats are skewed by the two bad stretches the Yanks had this season: early April and mid/late August. The Yanks handled the Angels in May (4 of 6) when the Yanks were starting to put things together and the Angels were the best team in baseball. The Yanks dominated the Red Sox at the Stadium after May 1 (5 of 6, aggregate 44-17) and would actually have won the season series after being 6-1 down in April if Rivera hadn't completely honked two games. And aside from the fact that Sheffield has taken both Santana and Nathan (the best Twins pitchers) deep, the Yanks and Twins have no good read on each other -- the Twins caught the Yanks in a tailspin in Minnesota, the Yanks caught the Twins halfway playing out the string in NY after the Twins had already clinched.
Fifth, place no trust in the Astros until they actually do something. Remember that despite all the hype, Clemens is just 2-3, 4.50 in LDS play and his teams are 3-5 in his starts (his WS stats are commensurate with Hall of Fame caliber pitching). Biggio and Bagwell are noted playoff stiffs and Lidge is in his first October as a closer -- which makes him unreliable just as Trevor Hoffman (1998), Mike Henneman (1996), Rivera (1997) and John Wetteland (1995) learned the hard way. Then again, the Braves are 1-4 in LDS play since 2000 . . .
As for the RedSawx-Angels -- somehow the notion of a five-game nailbiting classic like last season's Sux-A's series would be fitting and is highly likely.
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