John Tcacik from the Heritage Foundation argues that an 'anti-secession' law that Beijing has put on the legislative agenda for March is in reality the construction of a legal framework for the invasion of Taiwan.
It's clear that there are two main reasons why China has not invaded and reclaimed Taiwan. First, without the use or threatened use of non-conventional weapons, it's far from clear that they could. A successful invasion would require an amphibious assault that would in all probability have to dwarf Normandy. One wag commented that a Red invasion would require "a million man swim". And the Taiwanese have been dug in for 50 years. Second, the all but explicit threat that such an invasion would draw Washington and the US Navy into the fray.
The Bush administration, either out of miscalculation, disinterest or realpolitik with China has been a bit wet on Taiwan as Tcacik's article indicates. A clumsy statement of legality from Colin Powell and Bush's coolness toward Taiwan only encourages the Red Chinese and may slowly reinforce the impression that Washington may let a provocation go especially since the Middle East and China's 'help' in North Korea might be considered more important. An invasion won't happen tomorrow and probably won't happen soon but a strong statement by the President that we have a moral and legal obligation to maintain the political, economic and social integrity of Taiwan would go a long way to dissuading Red Chinese adventurism especially if the internal situation in China ever goes south and Beijing needs a distraction.