Friday, November 05, 2004

October Employment Report

Karl Rove might be the Boy Genius but he isn't omnipotent. The October employment report was the one that the Bush campaign hoped for but couldn't get before the election.

Non-farm payrolls rose 337,000 in October, dramatically higher than the 192,000 consensus. In addition, August and September payrolls were revised to 198,000 and 139,000 from 128,000 and 96,000. At this rate all the jobs 'lost' under Bush I will be made up by the inauguration. The unemployment rate, which is based on the household survey, edged up to 5.5% from 5.4%.

The report will scotch any hope of the Fed in the short term holding off on higher rates. The FOMC, meeting Wednesday, will nudge short rates up another 25 basis points.

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