Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Kerry's Weak Hand

Kerry and Edwards are determined to send their 10,000 lawyers to Ohio to try to steal what they could not win. Their problem is that their hand is extremely weak:

Here's why:
1. (At 3am EST with 98% of precincts reporting) the President leads in Ohio by 140,000 votes. (52% to 48%) At issue are the provisional ballots which number 250,000 acc to Kerry but more importantly, Ken Blackwell, the Ohio Secretary of State, indicates is 'trending towards 175,000'. Here's the math:

Assuming 90% of these ballots are good:
Case 1) Blackwell #: 90% of 175,000 = 157,500
Case 2) Dem #: 90% of 250,000 = 225,000

To overcome a 140,000 vote lead:
Case 1) 148,750 of the 157,500 votes would have to break for Kerry or 94.5%
Case 2) 182,500 of the 225,000 votes would have to break for Kerry or 81.2%

Damn near statistically impossible.

2. The President is leading in the popular vote by 4 MILLION, or close to 4%.

3. Looks like Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada in some combo will break for the President meaning not only will he lead in electoral votes, he will be over the 270 mark very soon.

Kerry can't win this election but he'll do a lot of damage to the country trying.

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