Monday, January 23, 2006

Super Bowl XV redux?

Is Super Bowl XL (the NFL should call it SB40, "XL" just looks like a clothing size) a classic in the making, culmination of a season for a team of destiny, heralding a new dynasty or something else?

The Monk's best parallel is Super Bowl XV. That game featured the Eagles, who had been the best team in the NFL all season, had run out to an 11-1 start before honking down the stretch, had whipped the Vikes and Cowboys in the NFC playoffs, had allowed the fewest points in the league and were just simply the better team. Their opponents were the Raiders, not the monsters of the West Coast who thrived under John Madden, but the wild card team that had to win at home, travel across country to the frozen fields of Cleveland and travel back across country to beat San Diego in the playoffs, led by a re-tread QB and which had been statistically a middling team all year (except in interceptions - a mind-boggling 35 to lead the league) before the playoffs. The Raiders used their speed and ball-hawking to throw the Eagles for a loop; forced 4 turnovers, including 3 INT by the team that had fewer INTs than any other that year, and whipped the Eagles 27-10 to become the first wild card to win the Super Bowl.

This season, the Steelers have already accomplished a first by hitting road and beating the Nos. 1, 2, and 3 teams in the AFC to make the Super Bowl (when New England won roadies to make the Super Bowl in the '85 season, the Pats started at the #4 Jets). They've been great on offense, especially Big Ben, and their defense has used its speed to flummox the Colts and Broncs. The Steelers have sufficient talent to have been a preseason Super Bowl favorite, but Roethlisberger's injury and RB questions (later solved) took their toll before the Steelers regrouped and stormed ahead to win seven straight to date.

Seattle looked good yesterday because Ray Rhodes did what Tim Lewis and Lovie Smith stupidly refused to do: dedicate the defense to stopping Steve Smith. Whereas Lewis seemed to be prepping for head coaching interviews, and Lovie just took some stupid pills by playing a regular defense against Steve Smith, Rhodes set up his defense to shut down the Carolina star, and it did. But the Steelers are different from what the S'hawks have faced: balanced, multidimensional, solid (remember, the Panthers were the #22 team on offense).

As you can tell, The Monk likes the Steelers today. I also distrust the Seahawks because (1) they're 10-0 at home, 5-3 on the road; (2) the NFC is weaker than the AFC but the Seahawks STRUGGLED mightily with the Giants and Cowboys in Seattle; (3) Mike Holmgren has committed the unforgiveable sin of losing a Super Bowl to an inferior team, Bill Cowher's lone Super Bowl appearance was against the 1990s Cowboys dynasty and the Steelers played respectably (other than Neil O'Donnell's confusion of Cowboys DBs for Steelers receivers). I may revise this thought process in the next two weeks, but right now I'm thinking this is Super Bowl XV all over again.

UPDATE: Because The Monk is fair and balanced, and a stat-head for stuff like this, I had to note a stat that ESPN brought up (which The Monk saw at lunch time): Seattle is the fifth team to go 8-0 at home in the regular season and then win two playoff games at home to reach the Super Bowl. Here are the previous four:

1985 Bears
1986 Giants
1996 Packers
1999 Rams

Notice a trend? Each of those four won the Super Bowl, and only the Rams had a particularly close (as close as it gets: Mike Jones tackling Kevin Dyson at the 1 as time expired for a 23-16 win) game. Then again: (1) each of the referenced teams' Super Bowls has been progressively closer -- the Bears won by 36, Giants by 19, Pack by 14 and Rams by 7; (2) the NFC was stronger than the AFC in '85, '86 and '96; in '99 the AFC had three of the four best teams in football (Jags 14-2, Colts 13-3, Titans 13-3).

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