The 2004 Mariners = 2005 Yankees?

This is a concept I thought about at the end of last week as the Yanks stank up their last two games of the three-game set against the Angels by racking up all of 2 runs against stiff pitchers Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey. I decided to wait because the Yanks started a series against what I perceived to be a sorry Toronto team. Now, my concerns seem appropriate.

You may recall the 2003 Mariners -- they went 93-69 for the second-straight season and capped a stretch where the M's had four-straight 90+ win seasons. With Gil Meche, Ryan Anderson and Joel Pineiro, many thought the M's could contend yet again in 2004 despite an old lineup. Then they collapsed: injuries and old age led to a colossal reversal of fortune as the Mariners won 30 FEWER games in 2004 than in 2003.

The Yankees of 2004 were almost overachievers despite their underachievement. That team had no starting pitching, relief pitching that was very overrated (other than Rivera) and had an expected win-loss record of 89-73 based on their run differential. That the team rolled up a 101-61 record was a testament to Joe Torre's managing, Jeter's grit and Gary Sheffield's late-inning heroics.

The Yankees of 2005 were supposed to reverse last year's failures: three hard-throwing starting pitchers brought in to shore up the staff, Felix Rodriguez and Mike Stanton to aid the relievers and a lineup again expected to threaten the 1000-run mark it missed last year. So much for all that.

These Yankees are still struggling to score. They've been unable to hit relievers from the Orioles, BlueJays, Rangers and even Tampa; they've been shut down by such dim lights as Washburn, Lackey, Chris Young (Rangers), Chan Ho Park, Bruce Chen and Hideo Nomo; they've failed to blow another team's save opportunity after the sixth inning all season and they managed no hits today against Toronto's relievers.

Tuesday will mark the Yanks' 27th game of the season. Think about the season like a 6-furlong horserace, the 27th game is the end of the first furlong. And the Yanks have their largest deficit viz. the divisional frontrunner since 1997. Is there an end in sight?

The Yanks have the ingredients to win now if this were 2002 or 2003. But the bullpen is old, the starting pitching is too up-and-down and the hitters are showing a complete lack of character. Add that to the lack of help in the minors at the Yanks' three "oldest" positions (centerfield, first base and catcher). And I've discussed the Yankees' complete failure to develop and retain good pitchers whilst making awful decisions on whom to keep and whom to trade (Lilly, Brazoban, etc.). It's a long way to the 97-102 wins the Yanks will need to make the playoffs and after this year it may be an even longer trek to reach the playoffs again.