1. Harriet Miers to be confirmed by the US Senate: 35/38
This contract is down 24 odd points so far in the day in heavy volume (1,000 contracts). This may be related to John Fund of the WSJ appearing on Fox opining that the nomination will be withdrawn.
2. Indictments in the Plame case before 12/31/05
Rove to be indicted: 55/59
Libby to be indicted: 75/79
Volume here not nearly as high and the market on Rove is drifting lower and Libby higher.
3. Tom Delay
- found guilty of conspiracy: 15/20
- found guilty of money laundering: 19/20
Very light volume but overall the market isn't buying Earle's flimsy case
4. Alabama vs. Tennessee, Alabama to win: 60/62 Roll Tide!
I would take these numbers as broad indicators of market sentiment and look for big moves and trends and filter out the noise.