The Monk's Guide to the NCAA Tournament

You've been counting down the hours since the selection show, penciling in your brackets and now . . . it's time.

Yes, it's what you have all been waiting for, The Monk's guide to this year's NCAA Tournament. You can check the archives from last March to see how my picks went last year. I ended up tying for victory with one of Wongdoer's colleagues in Wongdoer's large bracket pool. I pulled in third in '04. Each time the key to the high finish: picking three of the Final Four. In other words, don't fret much now about the 8/9 games because those are worth the least -- get the big ones right and you'll be in the hunt for the cash. And here we go, bracket by bracket:

Unfortunately Duke got a candy-a** regional for the second time in three years -- the "Atlanta" (f/k/a Southeast) Regional. The #2 seed lost to Duke by 31 during the regular season; the #3 seed is a plodding Big Ten team, the type that Duke eats for lunch; the #4 seed is a tourney underachiever from last year; the #5 seed was headed for the NIT a week ago; and the #6 seed -- a trendy Final Eight pick after its run last year -- has stunk down the stretch. Duke doesn't miss the Sweet 16 often -- just twice (1993, 1997) when ranked with a #1-#4 seeding under Krzyzewski. Duke doesn't lose in Regional Finals (10-1 under Coach K -- and Kentucky needed a huge rally in '98 to beat a young Duke team). If Duke fails, it fails in the Regional semis to an athletic team with good guards and inside beef (see '05 Michigan State, '03 Kansas) -- LSU fits that bill, but not well. Expect the dang Dookies to be playing in April.

Regional Semis picks: Duke, Syracuse (an admitted homer pick -- LSU is probably better), Iowa, Texas; Regional Final: Duke-Iowa.

Upset Special: NC State over Cal.

Location tips: (1) remember both So. Illinois and Iowa would play West Virginia in Big Ten territory in Michigan; (2) SU travels well and has sold out its allotment in Jacksonville; (3) Duke is in Greensboro, NC for the first two rounds.

Meanwhile in the Oakland (West) Regional, the Tournament Selection Committee has once again reinforced its predecessors' tradition of making the West the weakest Regional. Whereas the Atlanta region is easy for Duke, the Oakland region is easy for everyone. That means good upset potential. The Monk's pick: Kansas. Why? Because Memphis is a major conference Gonzaga, UCLA is unproven, Gonzaga is a non-major conference Gonzaga, Pitt will again find ways to honk (see: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005) and so on. Here's the key: Kansas has played good basketball against a solid conference for the past two months; Memphis has played a bunch of stiffs in the defenestrated C-USA; UCLA is solid but probably a year away and Gonzaga just doesn't play defense.

Regional Semifinalists: Memphis, KU, Indiana, UCLA; Regional Final = KU-UCLA.

Upset Special: I have Indiana over Gonzaga, but an IU loss in the first round, a Kent State win over Pitt; an Arkansas win over Memphis, or even a Xavier win over Gonzaga would not surprise me.

Location tips: (1) UCLA won't have to leave California to reach the Final Four; (2) Arkansas got a break -- there are loads of Arkies here in Big D and the Hogs get their first and second round games in Dallas.

In the Washington DC (East) Region, the pick is easy -- UConn. This is the situation that disgusts me. If UConn had done what everyone expected and won the Big East Tournament, the NCAA Tourney would simply be the Huskies Invitational. But those dogs didn't hunt in NYC and they're now seeking to become the first team to lose in its conference quarterfinals and win the NCAA. Personally, I can see UConn losing to Illinois or UNC or even Michigan State if the Spartans get their collective stuff together. But picking the Tournament is also a question of playing the odds -- and UConn has more talent and ability than ANY other team.

Regional Semifinals: UConn, Illinois, UNC, Seton Hall -- Tennessee just stinks right now; Regional Final: UConn-UNC.

Upset Special: Seton Hall over Tennessee and Utah St. over Washington -- two higher seeds that play poor defense. The Hall has enough seniors to make a mini-run like it did in 2000.

Location tips: (1) Illinois plays Air Force in the nation's largest military town, San Diego; (2) Michigan State got a break because it would play UNC in neighboring Ohio; (3) small break for Tennessee playing the Hall or Wichita State in neighboring North Carolina (Greensboro is about a 5+ hour drive from Knoxville) but the Vols will be playing a road game in the first round against the #15 seed -- Winthrop (N.C.).

The question coming out of Minneapolis (Midwest) is whether Allen Ray's eye will be fully functional. If so, Villanova is the best team in this lot -- a regional with a perennial underperformer at #3 and an overachiever at #2. Never trust overachievers -- those teams "overachieve" precisely because they lack talent but have good records (two words: Temple 1988). OSU is actually undersized for a Big Tenplusone team, and its 25-5 record far surpassed expectations. Third-seeded Florida has not made it past the second round since 2000, and has lost to a lower-seeded team in EACH of the past five years! And some of those losses are simply dreadful: 75-54 as a #3 to #11 Temple in 2001 (round 2); 68-46 to #7 Michigan State as a #2 seed in 2003 (round 2); 75-60 in a 5-12 game in 2004. The ONLY reason to pick Florida to get past the first weekend is that it's playing in Jacksonville -- the closest city in Florida to Gainsville.

Regional Semifinals: Villanova-BC, Florida-Ohio State; Regional Finals: Villanova-OSU.

Upset Special: UW-Milwaukee over Oklahoma (once again offensively challenged), if the UWM-Florida game was outside the Sunshine State, I'd have picked UWM for the Sweet 16; look out for BC to fail as well -- the Eagles are grumpy about their seed (never a good sign) and are the lone eastern team in its quarter of the bracket (Nevada, Montana, Pacific), which plays in Salt Lake City.

Location issues: (1) Ohio State plays in Dayton in the first two rounds -- that's why I have the Buckeyes getting past Georgetown; (2) Villanova plays in Philly in the first two rounds -- for those of you not familiar with religiously affiliated Northeastern schools, Villanova University is in Philadelphia.

There you have it: Duke, Kansas, Villanova and UConn, with UConn over Duke in the Final.

Confidence level -- much lower than last year when I picked Duke (oops), Louisville, UNC and Illinois with UNC over Illinois in the Final. Too many weaknesses on the big teams: Duke's stamina and lack of a No.3 scorer; KU's youth; 'Nova's injury situation and lack of size; UConn's headcase issue.

And now, we'll see.