For all the chatter about "parity" and "dark horses" you'll hear this year, the NCAA Tourney will be won by . . . someone you expect. In all likelihood, that's true. Why? Because in the last 16 years only TWO teams seeded lower than a #2 have won the Tournament: 1997 Arizona (#4) and 2003 Syracuse (#3). And in SU's case, it had a better claim to a #2 seed than the second seed in its region, Wake Forest.
So predict as many upsets as you like, the fact is that the winner will likely be a top two seed. Consider: since 1990, 11 of the 16 champions were #1 seeds, three others were #2 seeds; only two of 13 lower seeded finalists (Arizona and Syracuse) beat a higher seeded team in the title game; only one finalist that had been seeded #1 in its region lost in the national title game to a non-#1 seed (Kentucky 1997), the other eight #1 seeds playing a lower seed in the national title game won; and only two teams even won Final Four games against opponents seeded at least three slots higher (Indiana [#5] in '02 over Oklahoma [#2]; Arizona in '97 over UNC [#1]). These distinctions for Zona show just how remarkable a run it had in '97.
In other words, don't bet on LSU, UNC, Florida (puh-leeze), BC, KU or any other favored dark horse to win the whole thing.
No comments:
Post a Comment