Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Diamonds are forever?

ESPN has posted the predictions for the upcoming baseball season from Diamond Mind, which runs complex simulations to predict the final standings. For this season, the DM computers simulated 200 full seasons for 2007 based on player data, managerial data, and various other baseballgeek stats to come up with predicted standings and records for all 30 teams. Over the past two seasons, DM has picked 10 of 12 division winners (and only honked one last year because the Padres won a tiebreaker over the Dodgers).

This year, the DM boys came up with the Yanks winning 96 and the AL East. The RedSux? Third with 86. Last year, they picked the Yanks for 92 wins and the AL East and Boston to win 86 (which it did). Why so poor for the Sawx? Weak bullpen and the simulations stress more recent seasons for the players -- thus the 5.00+ ERA for Beckett hurts the simulations. Why so strong for the Yanks? Projecting 937 runs scored -- that will win some games.

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