Monday, November 06, 2006

Election 2006 - The Calls

Conservatives, Republicans, Libertarians, Lovers-of-Freedom-and-Liberty - GET OUT AND VOTE!

Here's my call:
- Senate 50/50 split
This will come down to Virginia. GOP losses in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island leave it to three key races. Corker seems to have Tennessee well in hand but Talent appears behind in Missouri. Can Allen hold Virginia? Betting here that he does -- by his hangnails. Would note that in Montana Conrad Burns has made up a lot of ground in a hurry and could be a heartbreaker for the Democrats.

- House Dems +22/+23
Tough to call here but looking at the CT 2, 4, and 5 as bellwethers. All three switching to Dems augurs a bad, bad night but 2 of 3 or all three retentions may mean that the Rove/Mehlman GOTV operation may have pulled a November surprise. Any hope of House retention would REQUIRE that the GOP steal two Democratic seats in Georgia.

There has been quite a bit of chatter about what appears to be a late swing for the GOP which is manifesting itself in latest polls showing Steele competitive in Maryland and Chafee in RI. Probably which leads Bob Novak to call for only two losses in the Senate and 19 in the House. But I'm discounting this as far too optimistic.

As for the professionals:

Larry Sabato's respected Crystal Ball site is calling for:
- Senate 51D, 49R - Dems +6 note: Webb beats Allen in Virginia
- House 232D, 203R - Dems +29
- Governors 29D, 21R - Dems +7

- Senate, Dems +6
- House, Dems +20 (13 Rep seats likely Dem and half of 16 Rep held toss-ups)

Tradesports parlay betting:
- Dem House/GOP Senate: 51/55%
- Dem House/Dem Senate: 31/35%

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