Thursday, January 31, 2008

For those who missed us

The Monk has been preternaturally busy over the past few days, thus the level of inactivity on the blog actually increased.

One quickie observation: momentum is everything in the presidential races. Not from a caucus standpoint -- the Iowa results generate news but not much else because the Iowa caucus is probably the least representative method of gauging support possible under the primary system. But from New Hampshire to Michigan to South Carolina to Florida, the results have caused sea changes in the races: Edwards out because he cannot come close to Obama in SC; Giuliani out because his big-state strategy failed thanks to small states where he had been doing well just 8 weeks ago. We now have, in essence, two two-candidate races: Obama v. Clinton, McCain v. Romney.

And Obama has the BOmentum -- Drudge notes that his overall support is up 11 percentage points and he's now within 43-39 of the Hillabeast. Meanwhile, McCain has the lead over Romney in the Republican race.

Ultimately, given Romney's flip-flop issues and the gnawing certitude I feel that the country is not ready for a Mormon as president, I think McCain is the better pick.

But I preferred Giuliani.

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