Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Sports geeks go nuts

A rare bonk from the great Verducci -- he tried to determine the most likely teams to go from sub-.500 in '07 to the playoffs in '08. But four of his six (Reds, A's, Twins, Royals, Rangers, Giants -- in that order) candidates are in the AL! That's a bit loopy: (1) the AL East will still be Yanks and RedSawx slugging it out to such a degree that one will win the division and the other will be favored to win the wild card slot; (2) Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago should all be good or better next year, and slugging it out in the AL Central should cripple the hopes of a wild card wannabe (in 13 years, only one wild card winner came from the AL Central); (3) the Angels are better than the 92 win '07 team, therefore the A's or Rangers would have to beat out the Yanks or RedSawx for the wild card. Verducci did a statistical analysis of the teams he thinks might enter the fray. The real most-likely-to-sneak-in who stank last year are the Reds and Cards.

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