Friday, October 20, 2006

Baseball = is it the new hockey?

The one bad thing about the baseball playoffs in the current three-tier system is that it is less of a battle of the best than it is a melee type of tournament. And the randomness is increasing.

From 1995-99 here are the ranks, by record in the league (not seeding), of the World Series participants (AL v. NL):

1 v. 1
2 v. 1
4 v. 2
1 v. 3
1 v. 1

From 2000-present, look at the ranks:

5 v. 4
3 v. 3
3 v. 4
1 v. 3
2 v. 1
1 v. 3
3 v. 5

Yipes! That's twice since 2000 that a World Series participant had a worse record than the wild card in its league. And since 2000, only three teams with the best record in the league have won the pennant, from 1995-99 that happened in six of the 10 LCS.

This is parity. It's also a devaluation of the regular season. When the Cardinals win the NLCS with an 83-win team that absolutely stank in September, when the Yanks (in '00) win the World Series with an 87-win team that finished the season losing 15 of 18, then the regular season is at the point where how you do means less than ever.

Remember, only one of the 14 teams ('98 Yankees) with 100+ regular-season wins has won the World Series since the advent of the three-tier playoffs. Only four others have won their LCS ('95 Indians, '99 Braves, '03 Yanks, '04 Cards) and two of those teams were swept in the World Series.

What does this mean? Since 1998, only the Yanks have won consecutive pennants. One small dynasty, lots of random World Series participants.

Thus, there's a word to describe the present state of baseball playoffs -- crapshoot. Hopefully, the playoffs won't become such a parody of parity that fans care less because the whole situation seems so random.

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